Exit Velocity May Be Overrated

    I'll be the first to admit it, Statcast is a helluva good time. People have wondered throughout time how hard Babe Ruth and Mike Piazza were able to hit a baseball. With Statcast, that is no longer a mystery, as we know exactly how hard guys are hitting the ball. It has certainly enhanced the experience of being a fan (and also has made being an executive for a team easier). Now people seem to love exit velocity, but what if I told you it may be a tad bit overrated?
     
     Statcast has certainly been helpful to us fans because we love to put things in numbers! So when we see stuff like player A. hit a ball faster than 100 miles per hour, that sounds like a huge deal. Whenever Giancarlo Stanton comes up to bat, fans from both the Marlins and the opposing team gather around to see how hard the ball will fly off Stanton's bat. 

     Personally, I don't think that is a bad thing at all, as it is a lot of fun to take a look at this kind of stuff. However, things start to get a bit awkward when people start strictly pointing to a player's high average exit velocity when talking a player up. I saw this all the time in fantasy baseball videos when they would talk about why they think a player would rebound. 

     I'll give a quick example. Take a guess as to who has a higher average exit velocity higher than Yoenis Cespedes, Rougned Odor and Anthony Rizzo? Well, that would be none other than Tyler Flowers and his .149 ISO. Flowers actually ranked 8th on that list. However, he only hit an ideal hit ball in 1.37% of the total pitches he saw. 

     Another problem that I find with how people drool over exit velocity readings was on this ground ball hit by Stanton. It was indeed the hardest recorded ball hit ever. The problem though, was that it resulted in a double play, arguably one of the worst outcomes a hitter can hit into.  

     I believe that exit velocity is a nice tool to use, but it should be paired with something like launch angle. I've already gone over ideal hit ball % here, and there is a higher correlation with that and compact contact than there is with strictly exit velocity. 

     Here, I will provide you with two different balls that were put into play by Yoenis Cespedes. One was hit at 102 miles per hour. The other was hit with far less velocity at 95 miles per hour. Can you take a guess as to which was actually better hit than the other? 

     It may be obvious because of the entire premise of this article, but the second one was the better hit ball, and was a far more productive result. The ball hit at 102 miles per hour resulted in a routine double play, while the one hit at 95 miles per hour was a ball hit nearly 350 feet, and was a productive sacrifice fly. 

Image from MLB.com

     Another good example of this is Astros pitcher, Collin McHugh. McHugh ranks 3rd on average exit velocity allowed by starters the past two seasons. However, as much as you see some big names on there, you also see a few that have not seen success those past two seasons, McHugh being one of them. So even for pitchers, there is not much correlation with strictly exit velocity allowed and success. 

     The point being is that exit velocity is not everything. Sure its fun to look at, and when used right, it can be great, but it is not the lone defining stat. 

     Instead, I believe that instead of being the entire puzzle, exit velocity is a big piece of it. Of course, you'd rather hit a ball over 100 miles per hour than in the 60's. However, exit velocity is a skill, and just because one player may not hit it harder than the rest doesn't mean that player can't get the job done. 

     There are different things to look at, such as if a player like Mike Trout is able to simply hit the ball wherever the fielders aren't. Another example is if someone like Dee Gordon doesn't need to hit the ball hard all the time, but rather, just hit it in play and use his speed. That's why I believe there are so many elements to look at when evaluating a baseball player, exit velocity is just one of the many great ones.